Jason Lieser's football picks: PB Lakes will pay for struggling offense; Don't count out Atlantic

Thursday, October 08, 2009
by Jason Lieser

Palm Beach Lakes coach Alonzo Jefferson's game plan for Dwyer, a stapled packet sitting on his desk, was labeled "District Championship." That's exactly what these teams are playing for this week and several other schools also can go a long way toward securing post-season spots with wins.

Because No. 2 Dwyer and No. 5 Palm Beach Lakes play in a three-team district with Okeechobee, it takes only two wins to claim the title. It looks like a lost season for the Brahmans (0-5), so both the Rams and Panthers should make the playoffs, but the winner hosts a first-round game and a potential second-round rematch.

Dwyer looks unstoppable after its 49-7 stomping of Atlantic, but it should be noted that the Panthers' offense has not been overwhelming against top competition. Dwyer managed just one touchdown against Glades Central and two offensive scores in a 34-6 win at Pahokee. Palm Beach Lakes leads the area in points allowed (31) and yields 117.4 yards of total offense per game, first among big schools.

The problem for the Rams, of course, has been a miserable offense. Palm Beach Lakes has scored more than 17 points just once this season. The passing game, already questionable, has suffered even more since the loss of top wide receiver Eddie Lovett.

Jefferson believes his best-case scenario is 14 points from his offense, which leaves a substantial burden on the defense. Realistically, the Rams are unlikely to score more than once on Dwyer.

In District 8-6A, one of the most loaded groups in the state, it could take all season (or longer, if a playoff is needed) for a winner to emerge.

The top four teams in that district are all capable of beating one another, so the winner of the Park Vista-Atlantic game will still have a lot of work to and the loser is far from eliminated.

It's easy to pick against No. 6 Atlantic right now. The Eagles are facing a premier running back in Park Vista junior Tre Mason (13 touchdown runs) and Atlantic coach Andre Thaddies does not have much confidence in a defensive front that has allowed 151.8 rushing yards per game "No, not really — not until they prove it," Thaddies said. "We haven't stopped the run yet."

Thaddies credited Mason as one of the area's elite runners, but said his bigger concern is the Park Vista offensive line. He simplified the assignments for his run stoppers this week, hoping a more direct attack will make them more effective.

"By cutting out some of the stunting and reading and homework, I hope to see a tremendous change," Thaddies said.

It's too early to give up on Atlantic. The Eagles have the ability to neutralize No. 8 Park Vista's passing game and the Cobras do not have enough speed in the secondary to cover Atlantic's receivers.

West Boca Raton, one of the area's most improved teams, should clamp down on the District 13-5A title with a win against Wellington. The Wolverines have been better this year and should ultimately make the playoffs as the wild card in a three-team district, but they will have trouble doing anything significant offensively against a Bulls team that gives up fewer than 12 points per game.

Royal Palm Beach (1-2) was the pre-season favorite to win District 12-5A, but Lake Worth and Santaluces (both 3-2) have emerged as legitimate threats.

The Wildcats need a big win over Lake Worth this week to take control of that race.

Look for Boynton Beach to lock up a post-season berth with a win over Suncoast in District 7-2A. The loser of that game will have to beat Glades Central to make the playoffs. Won't happen.

The non-district slate, while less meaningful, features marquee games as well. No. 1 Glades Central makes a rare trip to No. 7 Boca Raton. The Bobcats will test the Raiders, but ultimately Glades Central will distance itself in the second half.

Speaking of unusual journeys, Jupiter Christian sets out at sunrise Friday for a 10-hour bus ride to North Carolina for Saturday's game against Charlotte Christian.

Charlotte Christian is a defending state champion and has at least three future BCS players. On film, however, Charlotte Christian does not appear to be as quick or as disciplined as Jupiter Christian. Usually, the team that doesn't drive 10 hours and sleep in a hotel wins this game, but the Eagles' state-best winning streak (32 games) should return intact.

Jason Lieser's predictions

Fort Lauderdale-Cardinal Gibbons 36, St. Andrew's 21

Boca Raton Christian 21, Miami-Westwood Christian 10

Fort Lauderdale-Calvary Christian 39, Pope John Paul II 14

Village Academy 26, Oviedo-Masters Academy 17

Atlantic 28, Park Vista 24

Jensen Beach 28, Titusville 20

John Carroll 21, Winter Park-Trinity Prep 17

South Fork 28, Martin County 7

Treasure Coast 19, Centennial 14

Sebastian River 21, Fort Pierce Central 14

Fort Pierce Westwood 27, Merritt Island 21

Glades Central 34, Boca Raton 21

Port St. Lucie 35, Melbourne 31

Seminole Ridge 31, Palm Beach Central 7

Santaluces 22, John I. Leonard 14

Royal Palm Beach 29, Lake Worth 26

West Boca Raton 24, Wellington 7

Dwyer 35, Palm Beach Lakes 7

Boynton Beach 27, Suncoast 14

Fort Lauderdale-University 27, Cardinal Newman 7

King's Academy 21, Benjamin 14

Glades Day 41, Summit Christian 7

Olympic Heights 20, Fort Lauderdale-Archbishop McCarthy 14

Clewiston 14, Fort Myers-Gateway Charter 7

Fort Lauderdale-Stranahan 28, Forest Hill 14

Vero Beach 24, Palm Beach Gardens 7

Berean Christian 34, Deerfield Beach-Zion Lutheran 14

Jupiter Christian 29, Charlotte Christian 21