Story
High school football picks: Unpredictable week results in change in picking strategy
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
by
Jeff Greer
Matt Porter
Note for mobile users: If video above doesn't load, please click here.
NOTE: Palm Beach County schools called off all activities for Thursday and Friday because of the forecast regarding Hurricane Sandy. For the latest updates, click here. Games that have been canceled that appeared in early versions of this story have been removed. The video was recorded early in the week, so references to those canceled games remain.
Last week's results flipped some common Palm Beach County high school football themes on their heads, and they also called for perhaps a new strategy in predicting the winners of the area's best games.
Consistently dominant Dwyer lost to consistently inconsistent Atlantic. Primed-for-coronation Palm Beach Gardens, a team we were ready to declare a state-title contender, laid an egg in its biggest game of the season, a loss to Seminole Ridge, a team working its way back from an 0-2 start. Oh, and Pahokee, for which we've written several obituaries in recent seasons, handled King's Academy.
We got each of those picks wrong.
Each week, we select six "Games of the Week," which we think are the top area matchups. There have been 48 of those games, and Matt and I have picked the same winners in 47 of them (I thought Boca would beat John I. Leonard in Week 6, but then Boca lost its quarterback -- and the game.)
This week, the race's landscape changed. We have divergent picks for two of the county's best games -- Royal Palm Beach at Atlantic and South Fork at Olympic Heights.
The difference is belief in story lines and a mistrust of the strategies that got us to Week 9.
I'm not buying the "Atlantic is finally here" argument that has beaten louder each day since the Eagles' much-deserved rout of Dwyer last week. They outplayed the Panthers. No one's doubting that. But Royal Palm Beach has been consistent, disciplined and far more predictable than Atlantic. One big win doesn't change my feelings on Atlantic's inconsistencies.
Meanwhile South Fork is undefeated, but the Bulldogs squeaked out their past two wins, and this contest is too perfect for an upset for me to pass up. Olympic Heights has improved by leaps and bounds and is a great candidate to put a blemish on South Fork's schedule.
Matt likes the momentum and the psychological gains from a big win, so he's picking Atlantic to win its second big district game in two weeks. He does, for the record, agree about Royal Palm Beach's coaching advantage and more favorable recent history.
And he loves South Fork's defense, which rates among the area's best, and, while he acknowledges the worrisome results of late, he trusts the Bulldogs in a pinch.
So that's where we are: A week of unexpected results brings on a week of divergent predictions. Maybe it'll change the entire course of our picks contest. Or maybe it won't even matter if Hurricane Sandy washes everything out.
Let's get to our picks:
GAMES OF THE WEEK
No. 4 Royal Palm Beach (5-1, 4-0 in District 13-7A) at No. 8 Atlantic (5-2, 3-1 in 13-7A), 7 p.m. Monday
A big opportunity for Atlantic, which can assume the top spot in District 13-7A a week after beating Dwyer. These are similarly athletic, defensively dominant teams. Atlantic has momentum, while Royal Palm has been steadily effective.
Jeff's pick: Royal Palm Beach 21-14.
Matt's pick: Atlantic 27-24.
South Fork (7-0, 3-0 in 14-6A) at Olympic Heights (6-1, 2-1 in 14-6A), 6 p.m. Monday
Olympic Heights can lock in a playoff spot by handing South Fork its first loss. The Lions have a solid rushing attack and can get big plays on special teams, while South Fork's defense is something special.
Jeff's pick: Olympic Heights 16-14.
Matt's pick: South Fork 24-21.
Dwyer (6-1, 3-1 in 13-7A) at Lake Worth (1-6, 1-3 in 13-7A), 7 p.m. Monday
Dwyer needs to bounce back after last week's surprising loss to Atlantic. While Lake Worth is frisky, Dwyer should sort out its offense before next week's crucial district game against Royal Palm.
Jeff's pick: Dwyer 56-0.
Matt's pick: Dwyer 42-0.
No. 1 American Heritage (7-0) at West Monroe (La.) (7-1), 7:30 p.m. Saturday
This is a national test for Heritage, hitting the road against a powerhouse Louisiana school that regularly competes for national attention. But the Stallions are battle-tested and unafraid of a good old-fashioned road trip.
Jeff's pick: American Heritage 21-20.
Matt's pick: American Heritage, 34-27.
JEFF'S PICKS
Berean Christian (5-2) at Miami-Northwest Christian (4-3), 6 p.m. Monday: After starting 3-0, it's been boom or bust for Berean the past four weeks. Take the boom this time. Berean Christian 30-16.
Fort Pierce Central (6-0) at Centennial (1-6), 5 p.m. Saturday: Central's grooving its way through the softer part of its schedule, and this one's no harder. Centennial's big, but that's it. Fort Pierce Central 38-7.
Suncoast (2-5, 0-2 in 14-5A) at Fort Pierce Westwood (0-7, 0-3 in 14-5A), 6 p.m. Monday: Suncoast has 53 points in seven games; Westwood has 30. Combined, they've allowed a whopping 30 points a game. Maybe this one will be high-scoring? Suncoast 21-14.
Summit Christian (3-4, 1-2 in 7-2A) at No. 10 Glades Day (6-1, 4-0 in 7-2A), 7 p.m. Monday: It's tough enough for some of the larger schools to slow down Kelvin Taylor. Smaller schools? No such chance. Glades Day 42-7.
Jensen Beach (3-4, 2-0 in 14-5A) at Glades Central (3-4, 2-0 in 4-5A), 7 p.m. Monday: Be honest: Preseason, you didn't have this one down as the de facto district-title game. Neither did we. And for good reason: It won't be close. Glades Central 42-6.
MATT PORTER'S PICKS
South Florida HEAT (3-6) at Boca Raton Christian (7-0), 4 p.m. Monday: HEAT has played a tough schedule and lost to the Blazers on Aug. 31. Boca Raton Christian 40-17.
Palm Beach Lakes (0-7, 0-3 in 14-6A) at Okeechobee (3-4, 1-2 in 14-6A), 6 p.m. Monday: Lakes will struggle with Brahmans running back D.J. Washington, who is fourth among large-school backs in rushing yards (666 on 81 carries). Okeechobee 30-12.
Sebastian River (5-2, 3-0 in 14-6A) at Forest Hill (1-6, 0-3 in 14-6A), 7 p.m. Monday: As hard as Forest Hill plays, this is a tuneup game for Sebastian before next week's big district showdown with South Fork. Sebastian River 33-6.
Wellington (3-4) at Vero Beach (5-1), 7 p.m. Monday: Wellington has proven itself to be a capable mid-tier team, but there's no tougher road venue in the area than the Citrus Bowl. Vero Beach 31-10.
Village Academy (3-3, 3-1 in 7-2A) at Jupiter Christian (2-5, 0-3 in 7-2A), 7 p.m. Monday at Dwyer: Village can lock in its first playoff berth by beating up one of its big brothers. Village Academy 48-14.
Miramar-Somerset Academy (1-5) at King's Academy (3-3), 1 p.m. Saturday: King's should be able to run plenty against Somerset, which has allowed more than 30 points per game this year. King's Academy 35-7.
Spanish River (0-7, 0-4 in 13-7A) at West Boca Raton (1-5, 1-3 in 13-7A), 6 p.m. Monday: Forgettable season for River, which has the worst offense (12 points scored in eight games) and defense (297 points allowed) in the area. West Boca Raton 31-0.
Season records
Jeff 13-4; 101-25.
Matt 12-4; 101-25.
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User Comments:
Lakeworth insulted commented on October 25, 2012 at 7:34 a.m.: report abuse
Lakeworth should be fired up for this game as this one can define your season. Use Dwyers anger against them, move the sticks and control the clock. Your better than 56-0.
Matt & Jeff commented on October 25, 2012 at 9:06 a.m.: report abuse
Are you guys going to be making any predictions for the SFC playoffs? And to all other posters out there, if you are going to bach this post or the SFC, save it and take your bickering elsewhere please....
Matt Porter commented on October 25, 2012 at 10:23 a.m.: report abuse
Before this article was published, the SFC announced it moved this week's games to Thursday, Nov. 1. Thus, we didn't include SFC games in this column. We'll get to those next week.
glades central # 1 fan commented on October 25, 2012 at 10:43 a.m.: report abuse
matt when will glade central play there homecoming game vs jb
THE TRUTH commented on October 25, 2012 at 2:20 p.m.: report abuse
Royalpalm has no chance what so ever they might as well fore fit the game.
pbparent commented on October 25, 2012 at 3:46 p.m.: report abuse
Didn't Spanish River hire a division 1 college football coach? And they have the worst offense AND defense in the area??? How is that possible?
Why the censorship? commented on October 25, 2012 at 6:13 p.m.: report abuse
Royal Palm practiced during the school day today, while teachers and students attended 2 classes in a 4 hour time period. that's a fact so no need to censor the poster that put it out there. questionable judgement and priorities at our school.
Joe commented on October 25, 2012 at 9:26 p.m.: report abuse
@ Matt or Jeff can Royal Palm do that
Education? commented on October 26, 2012 at 2:17 p.m.: report abuse
Football practice during school hours. Why would the Royal Palm Beach admininstration allowed this to happen? Who is in charge? I always thought education was the #1 priority of any high school. Please tell me this isnt true, please.
Facts commented on October 26, 2012 at 2:44 p.m.: report abuse
Instead of a regular old gym class, their PE is football class, many many schools do it for multiple sports....just as you do math in math class you play football in football class
Just like commented on October 26, 2012 at 2:50 p.m.: report abuse
You know, just like weightlifting class
Please people don't start blasting this....many kids forgo a senior or junior privilege to be enrolled in these classes. Gym class IS NOT what it was a decade ago. Would you rather an athlete be in a regular PE class and walk laps or do even less, or be in a football/soccer/baseball/basketball/lacrosse class ect. ?
Justice? commented on October 26, 2012 at 4:36 p.m.: report abuse
So RPB has a class for soccer players only? Basketball? lacrosse? baseball only? That would be fair. I give him credit, Principal Bueno is doing an awesome job running the school.
Yes commented on October 26, 2012 at 5:27 p.m.: report abuse
Yes they do, most school have football class, baseball class, soccer class, Cheerleading class, basketball class, softball class....do I need to continue???
Know the facts before making ur self sounds foolish
Wildcat Teacher commented on October 27, 2012 at 9:28 a.m.: report abuse
Why did the football players in my 6th period class not attend 6th period that day ? Spoke with a few other teachers who said same thing. I get the7th per sport class, but please Mr Armas don't preach standards and education as your priority.
Truth commented on October 27, 2012 at 11:55 a.m.: report abuse
I have no beef with Bueno, but truth is certain players will watch film instead of going to class at times, he will call practice during school hours and when he was at Heritage, I heard he would call practice on days other schools were closed days before a Hurricane. He knows what it takes to win around this area and yes it may not always be the "right" thing to do, but he's definitely not the only one giving the players different treatment than the other students. People need to get over it and realize life isn't fair, we are not all equal in the same ways, and our society values winning above all else.
-Truth
Hurricane commented on October 27, 2012 at 1:31 p.m.: report abuse
AHS is not part of the palm beach county school district, they have every right to practice when PBC school district schools are closed.
For example not public school was allowed to practice Thursday after school...the weather was more then fine to hold a football practice....do you think Newman and pope and AHS and all those others should have cancelled practice just because the publics weren't allowed to practice.
Reality check.... commented on October 27, 2012 at 6:01 p.m.: report abuse
SMU, USC, and Oklahoma hace nothing on Royal Palm Beach. Armas is a puppet to Bueno. Good for football at RPB.
GameObserver commented on October 27, 2012 at 8:51 p.m.: report abuse
FPC 35-0 lead in 3rd quarter with 11:40 on the clock. Emptying bench now, putting in 2nd and 3rd string offense and defense. Team looks really really sharp in all phases of the game doing what ever pretty much when ever they want. Central's 6'4" Junior (Starting) QB is LEGIT..! Very classy move by FPC coaching staff for pulling back and bringing in the backups the second series in the 3rd quarter as this game was already over and could of been a 60+ point blow out.
FPC is a crazy good team and is playing possessed with a chip on their shoulders right now.. All I can say is Wow!! Playoffs are implicitly going to be good times in Ft. Pierce....
Earl T. commented on October 27, 2012 at 11:21 p.m.: report abuse
Olympic Heights is going to get smacked.
Wake up and smell the coffee commented on October 28, 2012 at 9:47 a.m.: report abuse
Goes to show just how much Armas really cares about the education, and turning that school around (NOT). I wonder how long it will take Bueno to get the negativity about RPB off this post. Doesnt take too long in the forums for him to get the negative comments off. Everyone knows your tricks Willy! Cheat, Manipulate, and Steal for your own personal gain. At the end of the year, what do those boys have to show?? No education!!
Joe commented on October 28, 2012 at 11:51 a.m.: report abuse
@ Matt or Jeff, The question I was asking was is it legal for Royal Palm to practice during school hour when everyone else in palm beach county schools were in classes.
@joe commented on October 28, 2012 at 1:40 p.m.: report abuse
No more illegal than ATL practicing Saturday and Sunday when the District clearly stated NO activities until Monday.
@joe commented on October 28, 2012 at 5:54 p.m.: report abuse
Joe is it legal from students to do math in math class?
If so then it was legal for them to practice during football class
Not sure how you missed all the posts stating they have 7th period football class
Nasir commented on January 13, 2013 at 3:41 a.m.: report abuse
A smilpe and intelligent point, well made. Thanks!
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